Part 4 - January 2012

A comparison of international managers

As I mentioned in my previous article, I've been looking at ways to break down the FootySimulator Rankings by time period. The ultimate plan is a product called FootySimulator Gold of which more in the near future. This month, I'm using the FootySimulator Ratings to compare a list of recent international managers. I'm using exactly the same methodology that produces the current FootySimulator ratings, except for the fact that I've removed any weightings that give the most recent results more influence. What these ratings show is the attack, defence and results rating for each of a list of managers. Strictly speaking the ratings are of the international team the manager was in charge of. In each of the three metrics, 100 represents the score of an average European or South American team. For attack and results, the higher rating is better. For defence the lower rating is superior. To provide some further context, I am providing the ranking each manager's team would have had in Europe for the period in question.

Recent managers of England

I have started this comparison at the point Glenn Hoddle which took over from Terry Venables in 1996. I have ignored managers who were in charge for 5 or less competitive games, to avoid giving unrealistic results due to a small sample. Venables' own record is further kinked because all his matches were at home and in fixtures where high rating points were available.

Manager	Period in Charge	Attack Rating	Defence Rating	Results Rating	European Ranking
Glenn Hoddle	Aug-96 to Feb-99	134.41	59.96	123.38	6
Kevin Keegan	Mar-99 to Oct-00	123.16	89.95	108.52	14
Sven-Goran Eriksson	Feb-01 to Jul-06	141.9	64.04	130.91	3
Steve MacClaren	Aug-06 to Nov-07	132.82	56.78	115.59	12
Fabio Capello	Jan-08 to Feb-12	153.51	71.19	126.37	4

So Sven comes out tops, Capello and Hoddle have decent records and Keegan's tenure is exposed as being poorest on all metrics. MacClaren's suprisingly good looking defence rating is helped by not having a finals tournament during has reign as England generally struggle to impress defensively in tournaments. Overall these statistics are a good advert for foreign managers and a poor one for passionate Englishmen.

Recent managers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Manager	Period in Charge	Attack Rating	Defence Rating	Results Rating	European Ranking
Craig Brown	Dec-93 to Jun-02	103.73	80.82	105.02	19
Berti Vogts	Jul-02 to Dec-04	85.85	95.23	95.7	26
Walter Smith	Dec-04 to Jan-07	113.96	73.39	110.26	17
Alex McLeish	Jan-07 to Nov-07	119.6	103.67	107.16	19
George Burley	Dec-07 to Nov-09	65.24	112.59	83.56	35
Craig Levein	Dec-09 to Present	102.88	100.75	91.06	29

Walter Smith's record looks impressive and overall there appears to me a marked decline post-2007, especially in the defending.

Manager	Period in Charge	Attack Rating	Defence Rating	Results Rating	European Ranking
Bobby Gould	Oct-95 to Jun-99	122.2	150.43	79.67	36
Mark Hughes	Sep-99 to Oct-04	103.04	115.24	91	31
John Toshack	Feb-05 to Sep-10	87.23	114.75	84.13	38
Gary Speed	Feb-11 to Nov-11	94.36	73.95	110.12	17

To me this shows not just that Gary Speed did a fine job, but that Wales' progress in the rankings was achieved overwhelmingly as a result of defensive improvement. The attacking record remains unremarkable.

Manager	Period in Charge	Attack Rating	Defence Rating	Results Rating	European Ranking
Bryan Hamilton	1994 to Jun-98	91.96	103.87	92.9	28
Lawrie McMenemy	Jul-98 to Nov-99	52.31	167.25	55.1	43
Sammy McIlroy	2000 to 2003	49	94.94	78.25	38
Lawrie Sanchez	Jan-04 to May-07	105.23	124.87	95.52	27
Nigel Worthington	Jun-07 to Nov-11	80.14	105.29	87.11	34

The fluctuation in Northern Ireland's performance from manager to manager is dramatic compared to England's and Scotland's. It could be argued that larger nations performance is more consistent whereas smaller nations need just the right manager at the helm. These stats also show that it is unwise to appoint as manager a man who has advertised alcohol free lager.