FootySimulator - The International Football Scores Predictor
FootySimulator - The International Football Scores Predictor - Analysing Saved Games
One of the most useful features you get when you subscribe to the FootySimulator pay site is the ability to save your simulations and compare them with other games that you have stored. The save option is available on the results screen - but only if you have run 99 or more simulations for your game.

Paying subscribers see two extra options ANALYSIS ODDS and ANALYSIS STATS on their menu. These are essentially two sides of the same coin - ANALYSIS ODDS shows you the match odds that were generated for your saved games; ANALYSIS STATS shows you statistical data pertaining to the same games.

Both menu options allow you to sort your data in a variety of ways: None sorts the items in the chronological order in which they were saved in the first place; Home Team and Away Team sort the data alphabetically. The other options Total Goals, Margin and Confidence only really apply to the ANALYSIS STATS sections and will be explained later.
This screen shows you the the projected match odds for each of your saved games. Important point. These games will be saved to the database according to your display preferences at the time. If you switch between Decimal and Traditional Odds, or between Bookmakers' or "True" prices this page may display values in both formats - making comparison difficult.

HOW YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS DATA.The ANALYSIS ODDS page is most valuable in helping you hunt for bargains. It is the easiest way of finding out quickly which games bookmakers may have priced up wrongly. Compare the bookmaker's coupon with this screen and see which team's prices have the greatest discrepancy. The greatest anomaly I have found and bet on was the Bulgaria - Sweden World Cup Qualifier in 2005. FootySimulator had Sweden priced up at 5-6 whereas they were widely available at 3-1 against. Sweden duly won 3-0.
In this example, there is a wealth of information from a variety of fictional saved games.
Iceland     vs     Malaysia
3             mode: 25.1% 1- 1- 0   3 - 0 12 % 7-1 4.2 2.8
Peru     vs     Guadeloupe
2- 1- 1   1- 1- 0   1 - 0 11.4 % 15-2 2.8 0.4
New Zealand     vs     Laos
5- 5- 4   0             mode: 71.8% 4 - 0 15.8 % 5-1 5.1 4.5
Paraguay     vs     Chile
2- 1- 1   1             mode: 42.4% 1 - 1 11.9 % 7-1 2.5 0.5
El Salvador     vs     Surinam
1             mode: 41.4% 1             mode: 36.3% 1 - 1 15 % 11-2 2.5 0.1

So what does all this information mean ?   Let's start with the columns immediately under the team names. Thes figures represent the score that is predicted for that team. There are two scenarios here. Scenario 1. If FootySimulator is confident on a particular score for the team in question, that will be the only number within that box. The box will also be a different colour (we'll come to that later). Thirdly the word mode will appear followed by a number. This number represents FootySimulator's estimate of the team in question getting that score. In the example above, Iceland are given are 25.1% chance of scoring exactly 3 goals, whereas Laos are given a whopping 71.8% chance of scoring zero in their game against New Zealand. Scenario 2. FootySimulator is less confident on a particular score so three possibilities are displayed. These figures represent the mean, median and mode scores that should be achieved. In the examples above, FootySimulator is torn as to whether New Zealand will score 4 or 5 goals against Laos. A good rule of thumb is to go with the majority verdict. If two figures are the same, that is the better figure to plump for.

Now for the colours. If there is a yellow background, it means that FootySimulator has a definitive prediction for one of the teams' scores. Thus Iceland are good for 3 goals but FootySimulator thinks Malaysia could be either 0 or 1. It there is an orange background it means that FootySimulator has a definitive prediction for both teams. Any other background denotes that FootySimulator is not particularly confident about either team's score and that, this game should be left well alone if you were considering a correct score bet. In the above example, El Salvador v Surinam is the stand-out correct score betting opportunity.

Now on to the other boxes. The first represents the modal score. This is the score that represents the most common outcome for each side - even if the mode contradicts the mean and the median scores. The next box represents the percentage chance of the modal score being achieved. The box after that represents that percentage after it has been converted into bookmakers odds. So in the Peru v Guadeloupe neither team has a nailed on definitive score (you would probably plump for 2-1 to Peru based on this information - although it is the last game you would bet on). But the most common scores here are 1 for Peru and 0 for Guadeloupe. This translates to an 11.4% chance which equates to approximately 15-2 with the bookmakers. Even if you want to bet on a 1-0 victory for Peru, you will not be getting value unless you can find a better price than that and should therefore avoid the bet if you were only being offered, say, 6-1.

The final two columns are for spread betting enthusiasts or fixed odds punters who like either handicap betting or betting on the number of goals in a game. The first column represents the number of goals in the game, the second represents the margin of superiority for the home team. This figure will be negative if the away team has superiority. So, for example, the biggest goalfest should be the New Zealand - Laos game (which is also the most one-sided). The tightest game should be the El Salvador versus Surinam fixture.
Each saved game comes with the option to Delete it. This will remove the record of that game permanently from the database. Conversely the Clear All button removes all your saved games. The Odds and Stats buttons toggle between the two analysis pages. The back button returns you to the main selection screen.
The ANALYSIS STATS screen is extemely useful in telling you not just which outcomes are most likely for certain games, but which games are you most likely to come up trumps with your predictions. The various sort options will come in particularly useful for the total goals and total margin fields on the right of the screen.