FootySimulator - The International Football Scores Predictor
FootySimulator - The International Football Scores Predictor - Analysing your data - advanced
ANALYSING YOUR DATA - ADVANCED
If you subscribe to the site, your simulations carry an extra level of detail compared to the free version. This article throws light on the extra features that are available and, hopefully, will show you how to use that information profitably. To illustrate the instructions, we will be looking at a fictional encounter between Denmark (home) and South Africa. This simulation has been run 199 times. This is itself is one advantage of the subscription site - you can run over four times as many games (199 compared to 49) giving you greater more reliable results. You can also elect to have the output of the simulations emailed to you. The e-mail output looks very similar to the on screen display.

On the advanced level simulation, you will see five tables of information. Three will be familiar from the basic version - results information, averages and odds information. In addition you also have a goal frequency grid and a correct score grid.
Results Information
TEAM W D L F A AVF AVV
Denmark 152 32 15 474 122 2.4 0.6
South Africa 15 32 152 122 474 0.6 2.4

The result information is presented in a similar format to the league tables that you should already be familiar with. The columns are as follows: Won, Drawn, Lost, Goals For and Goals Against. After these are the average goals for and against - rounded to the nearest 0.1 of a goal.

A new feature for subscribers is the pie chart giving a graphical representation of the results breakdown and goals scored by each team.
Averages
AVERAGES   MEAN   MEDIAN   MODE   RECOMMENDATION
Denmark   2   2   2 (27.1%) 2
South Africa   1   0   0 (54.7%) none

The meaning of each average is explained fully on the basic analysis screen - suffice to say that FootySimulator is confident that Denmark will score 2 goals and claims this will happen over 27% of the time. South Africa are predicted to score either 0 or 1. FootySimulator is not confident enough to make a firm recommendation - even so, it points out that South Africa should score 0 slightly more than 54% of the time. Conclusion although you may find better opportunities in other matches, if you had to place a correct score bet in this game then 2-0 to Denmark would be the most likely score to occur.

Do bear in mind that the more games are simulated, the more reliable the output is likely to be. If you ran this simulation again, you would get slihgly different results - however the results would not vary as much as if you were running 49 game simulations or less.
Odds Information
Match Odds Price   Spread  
Denmark 1-4   1.7 to 1.9  
Draw 4-1    
South Africa 10-1      

This section shows the odds that FootySimulator thinks the bookmakers should be offering based on the results it has processed. In this particular example, Denmark are being offered at 1-4 (or 1.25 in decimal format). Therefore you would be looking to bet on them with any bookmaker prepared to offer significantly better odds (e.g. 2-5). The draw and the South Africa win should only be backed if you were able to find odds of better than 4-1 and 10-1 respectively.

As for the Spread Bet, FootySimulator thinks Denmark have an advantage or very nearly 2 goals. This also indicates that Denmark are good value on the handicap betting if they are handicapped by 1 goal or less.
The Goal Frequency Grid
GOAL FREQUENCY GRID
Denmark   South Africa
18 cuml 0 109 cuml
41 59 1 60 169
54 113 2 28 197
45 158 3 2 199
22 180 4   199
13 193 5   199
5 198 6   199
1 199 7   199
0  + 0 
This grid lists shows the number of times each team scored different numbers of goals during their 199 encounters. South Africa, for example, drew a blank in 109 of these games and scored a single goal in 60 of the others. The cuml. column gives the cumulative number of games in which each team scored that number of goals or less. Thus Denmark scored 2 goals or less in 113 games and scored 3 goals or less in 158 games. You can also use this grid to work out how many times each team scored, say, 2 or more goals. This is achieved by subtracting the cumulative score for 1 goal or less from the total number of games i.e. 199 - 59 = 140 times Denmark scored 2 or more goals.
Subscribers may now also see the goal frequencies for each team represented in pie-chart format.
The Correct Score Grid
CORRECT SCORES (100-1 any other named score)
Denmark win draw South Africa win
1 - 013-2
2 - 09-2
2 - 19-1
3 - 011-2
3 - 111-1
3 - 225-1
4 - 012-1
4 - 122-1
4 - 250-1
5 - 022-1
5 - 140-1
5 - 280-1
6 - 050-1
0 - 016-1
1 - 112-1
2 - 220-1
1 - 028-1
2 - 050-1
2 - 128-1
The highest odds bookmakers will generally pay out on a correct score bet are 100-1. The Correct Score Grid lists all scores which should offer a lower price than that. In this case, Denmark 2 South Africa 0 is the 9-2 favourite. Although this is the most likely outcome, you would only want to back that score if you could find a bookmaker offering a better price. Note that the odds in this example are the 'bookmakers' odds rather than the 'true' odds of each score happening. In other words the bookmaker's profit margin has already been factored in. If you wish to view the 'true' odds go to your 'preferences' screen and change the setting in there. Note also that the accuracy of FootySimulator's correct score predictions increases dramatically, the more simulations you are prepared to run. To get results that I would be prepared to put money on, I would personally run 499+ simulations. FootySimulator has a special World Cup section that contains simulations for each of the 48 World Cup group games. These have been run 1999 times each and are available for a small fee.
And finally ...
In this section we have seen the extra in-game functionality that is available to paying subscribers. You can have results emailed to you by checking a box on the selection screen. You can run simulations of up to 999 games - that's ten times as many as in the free version. You also get goal frequency and correct score information. The final feature available to you is "Save game". This feature is only available if you run 99 or more simulations for a game - otherwise the information is not really meaningful enough to be worth saving. Details on how to analyse stored games is available from the main menu. Suffice to say here that this can be an extremely useful tool in advising you which games to bet on.