If you subscribe to the site, your simulations carry an extra level of detail compared to the free version. This article throws light on the extra features
that are available and, hopefully, will show you how to use that information profitably. To illustrate the instructions, we will be looking at a fictional encounter
between Denmark (home) and South Africa. This simulation has been run 199 times. This is itself is one advantage of the subscription site - you can run over four
times as many games (199 compared to 49) giving you greater more reliable results. You can also elect to have the output of the simulations emailed to you.
The e-mail output looks very similar to the on screen display.
On the advanced level simulation, you will see five tables of information. Three will be familiar from the basic version -
results information,
averages and
odds information. In addition you also have a goal frequency grid and a correct score grid.
ANALYSING RESULTS INFORMATION FROM OUR FOOTBALL SIMULATIONS
| TEAM |
W |
D |
L |
F |
A |
AVF |
AVV |
| Denmark |
152 |
32 |
15 |
474 |
122 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
| South Africa |
15 |
32 |
152 |
122 |
474 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
The result information is presented in a similar format to the league tables that you should already be familiar with.
The columns are as follows:
Won,
Drawn,
Lost, Goals
For and Goals
Against. After these
are the average goals for and against - rounded to the nearest 0.1 of a goal.
A new feature for subscribers is the pie chart giving a graphical representation of the results breakdown
and goals scored by each team.
ANALYSING AVERAGES FROM OUR FOOTBALL SIMULATIONS
| AVERAGES |
MEAN |
MEDIAN |
MODE |
RECOMMENDATION |
| Denmark |
2 |
2 |
2 (27.1%) |
2 |
| South Africa |
1 |
0 |
0 (54.7%) |
none |
The meaning of each average is explained fully on the basic analysis screen - suffice to say that FootySimulator is confident that
Denmark will score 2 goals and claims this will happen over 27% of the time. South Africa are predicted to score either 0 or 1.
FootySimulator is not confident enough to make a firm recommendation - even so, it points out that South Africa should score 0
slightly more than 54% of the time.
Conclusion although you may find better opportunities in other matches, if you had to place
a correct score bet in this game then 2-0 to Denmark would be the most likely score to occur.
Do bear in mind that the more games are simulated, the more reliable the output is likely to be. If you ran this simulation
again, you would get slihgly different results - however the results would not vary as much as if you were running 49 game simulations
or less.
ANALYSING ODDS AND BETTING INFORMATION FROM OUR FOOTBALL SIMULATIONS
| Match Odds |
Price |
Spread |
| Denmark |
1-4 |
1.7 to 1.9 |
| Draw |
4-1 |
|
| South Africa |
10-1 |
|
This section shows the odds that FootySimulator thinks the bookmakers should be offering based on the results it has processed.
In this particular example, Denmark are being offered at 1-4 (or 1.25 in decimal format). Therefore you would be looking to bet on them with any
bookmaker prepared to offer significantly better odds (e.g. 2-5). The draw and the South Africa win should only be backed if you were able to
find odds of better than 4-1 and 10-1 respectively.
As for the Spread Bet, FootySimulator thinks Denmark have an advantage or very nearly 2 goals. This also indicates that Denmark are good value
on the handicap betting if they are handicapped by 1 goal or less.
USING OUR GOAL FREQUENCY GRID TO ANALYSE SCORE INFORMATION FROM OUR FOOTBALL SIMULATIONS
| GOAL FREQUENCY GRID |
| Denmark
|
|
South Africa
|
|
18
|
cuml |
0 |
109
|
cuml |
|
41
|
59 |
1 |
60
|
169 |
|
54
|
113 |
2 |
28
|
197 |
|
45
|
158 |
3 |
2
|
199 |
|
22
|
180 |
4 |
|
199 |
|
13
|
193 |
5 |
|
199 |
|
5
|
198 |
6 |
|
199 |
|
1
|
199 |
7 |
|
199 |
| 0 | |
+ |
0 | |
|
This grid lists shows the number of times each team scored different numbers of goals during their 199 encounters.
South Africa, for example, drew a blank in 109 of these games and scored a single goal in 60 of the others. The
cuml. column gives the cumulative number of games in which each team scored that number of goals or less.
Thus Denmark scored 2 goals or less in 113 games and scored 3 goals or less in 158 games. You can also use this grid to work out how
many times each team scored, say, 2 or more goals. This is achieved by subtracting the cumulative score for 1 goal or less
from the total number of games i.e. 199 - 59 = 140 times Denmark scored 2 or more goals.
|
Subscribers may now also see the goal frequencies for each team represented in pie-chart format.
USING OUR CORRECT SCORE GRID TO ANALYSE CORRECT SCORE INFORMATION FROM OUR FOOTBALL SIMULATIONS
| CORRECT SCORES (100-1 any other named score) |
| Denmark win |
draw |
South Africa win |
| | 1 - 0 | 13-2 | | 2 - 0 | 9-2 | | 2 - 1 | 9-1 | | 3 - 0 | 11-2 | | 3 - 1 | 11-1 | | 3 - 2 | 25-1 | | 4 - 0 | 12-1 | | 4 - 1 | 22-1 | | 4 - 2 | 50-1 | | 5 - 0 | 22-1 | | 5 - 1 | 40-1 | | 5 - 2 | 80-1 | | 6 - 0 | 50-1 |
|
| | 0 - 0 | 16-1 | | 1 - 1 | 12-1 | | 2 - 2 | 20-1 |
|
| | 1 - 0 | 28-1 | | 2 - 0 | 50-1 | | 2 - 1 | 28-1 |
|
|
The highest odds bookmakers will generally pay out on a correct score bet are 100-1. The Correct Score Grid lists all scores which
should offer a lower price than that. In this case, Denmark 2 South Africa 0 is the 9-2 favourite. Although this is the most likely outcome, you
would only want to back that score if you could find a bookmaker offering a better price. Note that the odds in this example are the 'bookmakers' odds rather than the 'true'
odds of each score happening. In other words the bookmaker's profit margin has already been factored in. If you wish to view the 'true' odds
go to your 'preferences' screen and change the setting in there. Note also that the accuracy of FootySimulator's correct score predictions
increases dramatically, the more simulations you are prepared to run. To get results that I would be prepared to put money on, I would
personally run 499+ simulations. |
USING FOOTYSIMULATOR TO GET THE MOST ACCURATE INFORMATION FROM OUR FOOTBALL SIMULATIONS
In this section we have seen the extra in-game functionality that is available to paying subscribers.
You can run simulations of up to 999 games - that's ten times as many as in the free version. You also get goal
frequency and correct score information. The final feature available to you is
"Save game". This feature is only available if you
run 99 or more simulations for a game - otherwise the information is not really meaningful enough to be worth saving. Details on how to analyse
stored games is available from the main menu. Suffice to say here that this can be an extremely useful tool in advising you which games to
bet on.
